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CAUTION
decision score 51/100
A marginal fit — tourism in São Paulo needs a tight thesis.
Sector fit 52/100, opportunity 49, risk 48. Market suits value / budget positioning. Watch Safety.
Sector fit
52/100
Decision score
51/100
Opportunity
49/100
Risk
48/100
Big Mac afford.
11/100
202 macs / salary
Positioning
value / budget
purchasing power 36
Market profile
Eight pillars of the environment this decision sits in (0–100).
Sector fit — this market
Which sectors this market supports best. Your pick is highlighted.
01
Why — the drivers
what supports or constrains this sector hereTourism
Tourism is adequate but not a standout advantage.
short-term◆ mixed64
Safety
Safety is a constraint — weigh carefully before entry.
short-term▼ negative42
Opportunity
Opportunity is adequate but not a standout advantage.
medium-term◆ mixed49
Big Mac · live affordability
The everyday-cost proxy — real prices, The Economist 2026-01-01.
11
AFFORDABILITY /100
Local price
23.9 BRL
USD price
$4.45
Macs / salary
202
Work minutes
52.2
Currency valuation
-27% undervalued
Forecast — 3 scenarios
Market outlook band; probability-weighted.
Conservative
41
p = 28%
Base
49
p = 39%
Growth
57
p = 32%
02
Should you here — or elsewhere?
same sector, ranked across markets03
The call
Why yes
- No standout tailwinds — this is a monitor, not a mover.
Why not
- Safety (42) is a constraint — build the plan around it.
- High lethal-violence index (67) raises operating and insurance cost.
- Thin local purchasing power (36) — lean on tourists/expats or price low.
Recommended strategy
CAUTION. Enter selectively with a focused format — target a value / budget tourism offer. Decision score 51/100 (fit 52, opportunity 49, risk 48).
Monitor: inflation vs. wage growth · Big Mac releases & currency valuation · tourism trend · competitive supply.