Suggestion engine · Real-Estate Entry-Window

Buy, invest or develop — is the window open?

One entry score per market, from real data: OECD house price-to-income and price-to-rent (standardised against each market's own long-run average), plus real GDP-growth demand, financing cost, title security and climate exposure. Ranked from most to least favorable to enter now.

Open favorable ·Ajar selective ·Narrow caution ·Closed overvalued / wait
1BerlinGermany75Open
Price-to-income 88.8Price-to-rent 111.25-yr real price -5%

100 = each market's own long-run average · above 100 = overvalued vs its history

Valuation100
Demand24
Financing94
Title82
Climate67
Buy to liveFavorable — priced near or below its long-run norm; financing is workable.
Buy to investSelective — pricing full; only well-located, high-yield assets work.
DevelopWeak absorption — soft demand; new supply risks sitting. Construction activity is roughly flat (-6.2% over 5yr).
2ZurichSwitzerland75Open
Price-to-income 116.2Price-to-rent 124.55-yr real price +19.5%

100 = each market's own long-run average · above 100 = overvalued vs its history

Valuation80
Demand44
Financing99
Title88
Climate72
Buy to liveFavorable — priced near or below its long-run norm; financing is workable. Note: prices have run hard recently.
Buy to investSelective — pricing full; only well-located, high-yield assets work.
DevelopCase-by-case — demand is moderate; margin depends on land + build cost. Construction is contracting (-10.7% over 5yr) — thinner pipeline; check why building cooled.
3SeoulSouth Korea74Open
Price-to-income 49Price-to-rent 1065-yr real price -6.5%

100 = each market's own long-run average · above 100 = overvalued vs its history

Valuation100
Demand26
Financing94
Title74
Climate58
Buy to liveFavorable — priced near or below its long-run norm; financing is workable.
Buy to investSelective — pricing full; only well-located, high-yield assets work.
DevelopWeak absorption — soft demand; new supply risks sitting. Construction activity is roughly flat (+0.4% over 5yr).
4TokyoJapan72Open
Price-to-income 87.6Price-to-rent 103.95-yr real price +9.1%

100 = each market's own long-run average · above 100 = overvalued vs its history

Valuation100
Demand13
Financing100
Title80
Climate50
Buy to liveFavorable — priced near or below its long-run norm; financing is workable.
Buy to investSelective — pricing full; only well-located, high-yield assets work.
DevelopWeak absorption — soft demand; new supply risks sitting. Construction activity is roughly flat (-7.9% over 5yr).
5New YorkUnited States71Open
Price-to-income 114.2Price-to-rent 130.15-yr real price +31.4%

100 = each market's own long-run average · above 100 = overvalued vs its history

Valuation78
Demand47
Financing90
Title76
Climate60
Buy to liveFavorable — priced near or below its long-run norm; financing is workable. Note: prices have run hard recently.
Buy to investSelective — pricing full; only well-located, high-yield assets work.
DevelopCase-by-case — demand is moderate; margin depends on land + build cost. Construction is expanding (+57.8% over 5yr) — active market, but more competing supply.
6ParisFrance70Open
Price-to-income 106.7Price-to-rent 132.15-yr real price -2.6%

100 = each market's own long-run average · above 100 = overvalued vs its history

Valuation81
Demand35
Financing94
Title76
Climate66
Buy to liveFavorable — priced near or below its long-run norm; financing is workable.
Buy to investSelective — pricing full; only well-located, high-yield assets work.
DevelopWeak absorption — soft demand; new supply risks sitting. Construction is contracting (-14.5% over 5yr) — thinner pipeline; check why building cooled.
7LondonUnited Kingdom69Open
Price-to-income 116.3Price-to-rent 134.25-yr real price -0.4%

100 = each market's own long-run average · above 100 = overvalued vs its history

Valuation75
Demand41
Financing90
Title78
Climate65
Buy to liveFavorable — priced near or below its long-run norm; financing is workable.
Buy to investSelective — pricing full; only well-located, high-yield assets work.
DevelopWeak absorption — soft demand; new supply risks sitting. Construction activity is roughly flat (+4.5% over 5yr).
8Los AngelesUnited States68Open
Price-to-income 114.2Price-to-rent 130.15-yr real price +31.4%

100 = each market's own long-run average · above 100 = overvalued vs its history

Valuation78
Demand43
Financing90
Title74
Climate45
Buy to liveFavorable — priced near or below its long-run norm; financing is workable. Note: prices have run hard recently.
Buy to investSelective — pricing full; only well-located, high-yield assets work.
DevelopCase-by-case — demand is moderate; margin depends on land + build cost. Construction is expanding (+57.8% over 5yr) — active market, but more competing supply.
9StockholmSweden66Ajar
Price-to-income 121.9Price-to-rent 151.35-yr real price -7.3%

100 = each market's own long-run average · above 100 = overvalued vs its history

Valuation63
Demand33
Financing96
Title86
Climate74
Buy to liveMixed — fair-to-full value; sensitive to your mortgage rate.
Buy to investSelective — pricing full; only well-located, high-yield assets work.
DevelopWeak absorption — soft demand; new supply risks sitting. Construction activity is roughly flat (-8.2% over 5yr).
10AmsterdamNetherlands64Ajar
Price-to-income 136.2Price-to-rent 152.35-yr real price +17.9%

100 = each market's own long-run average · above 100 = overvalued vs its history

Valuation56
Demand40
Financing94
Title84
Climate68
Buy to liveMixed — fair-to-full value; sensitive to your mortgage rate.
Buy to investSelective — pricing full; only well-located, high-yield assets work.
DevelopWeak absorption — soft demand; new supply risks sitting. Construction is expanding (+17.6% over 5yr) — active market, but more competing supply.
11SydneyAustralia61Ajar
Price-to-income 148.2Price-to-rent 170.65-yr real price +19.2%

100 = each market's own long-run average · above 100 = overvalued vs its history

Valuation41
Demand59
Financing91
Title82
Climate55
Buy to liveStretched — overvalued vs its own history; wait, or negotiate hard.
Buy to investThin yields — prices outrun rents; income case is weak here.
DevelopSupportive — demand and financing back new supply (verify build cost + permits). Construction activity is roughly flat (+9.6% over 5yr).
12TorontoCanada59Ajar
Price-to-income 157Price-to-rent 182.55-yr real price +17.4%

100 = each market's own long-run average · above 100 = overvalued vs its history

Valuation30
Demand60
Financing93
Title82
Climate66
Buy to liveStretched — overvalued vs its own history; wait, or negotiate hard.
Buy to investThin yields — prices outrun rents; income case is weak here.
DevelopSupportive — demand and financing back new supply (verify build cost + permits). Construction activity is roughly flat (+5% over 5yr).

Who is it for? — profile-weighted view

The same market scores differently for different users. Pick a profile — the ranking reweights the real signals (valuation, demand, financing, title, climate) to that user's priorities. This is the weighting layer of the AGI real-estate brief; actual yields, vacancy and transaction depth need licensed data and are on the roadmap.

Stable rental cash flow. Values reasonable pricing (price-to-rent = yield proxy), real tenant demand and cheap financing.

Prioritizes: Valuation (yield) · Demand · Financing · Valuation 35% · Demand 30% · Financing 20% · Title 10% · Climate 5%

MarketValuation Demand Financing Title Climate Score ▼
1Berlin Germany1002494826773
2Zurich Switzerland804499887273
3Seoul South Korea1002694745872
4New York United States784790766070
5Tokyo Japan10013100805069
6Paris France813594766669
7London United Kingdom754190786568
8Los Angeles United States784390744568
9Stockholm Sweden633396867463
10Amsterdam Netherlands564094846862
11Sydney Australia415991825561
12Toronto Canada306093826659

Same markets, five investors — where the window opens and closes

Berlin
73
65
83
65
83
Zurich
73
70
81
71
82
Seoul
72
65
80
64
79
Tokyo
69
61
79
61
80
Paris
69
64
76
65
76
Stockholm
63
60
74
62
76
New York
70
67
73
68
74
London
68
64
74
65
74
Amsterdam
62
61
70
63
72
Los Angeles
68
64
69
65
70
Sydney
61
63
61
66
65
Toronto
59
62
60
65
64
Rental-income investorCapital-appreciation investorFamily buying a homeDeveloperBank / mortgage lender

Valuation data not available

These markets aren't in OECD house-price valuation coverage, so no honest overvaluation read is possible — we show demand and financing only, never a fabricated valuation.

DubaiUnited Arab EmiratesDemand 82Financing 89Not in OECD house-price coverage
Abu DhabiUnited Arab EmiratesDemand 81Financing 89Not in OECD house-price coverage
RiyadhSaudi ArabiaDemand 78Financing 885-yr price -10.2%OECD publishes a price index but no valuation ratio
MumbaiIndiaDemand 73Financing 865-yr price -6.4%OECD publishes a price index but no valuation ratio
SingaporeSingaporeDemand 62Financing 93Not in OECD house-price coverage
CairoEgyptDemand 61Financing 36Not in OECD house-price coverage
IstanbulTurkeyDemand 57Financing 05-yr price +91.4%OECD publishes a price index but no valuation ratio
ShanghaiChinaDemand 45Financing 945-yr price +6%OECD publishes a price index but no valuation ratio
Mexico CityMexicoDemand 44Financing 795-yr price +16.3%OECD publishes a price index but no valuation ratio
São PauloBrazilDemand 42Financing 745-yr price -10.3%OECD publishes a price index but no valuation ratio

Valuation: OECD Analytical House Prices (2024). Demand: World Bank GDP growth + migration + population. Develop lens also notes OECD construction-activity momentum (shown as context, not scored — volume alone can mean an active market or oversupply). Financing, title and climate are current seed indicators. Not investment advice — a screen, not a recommendation. Full methodology →