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CAUTION
decision score 55/100
A marginal fit — tourism in Istanbul needs a tight thesis.
Sector fit 63/100, opportunity 57, risk 71. Market suits budget to mid-market positioning. Driven by Tourism.
Sector fit
63/100
Decision score
55/100
Opportunity
57/100
Risk
71/100
Big Mac afford.
0/100
119 macs / salary
Positioning
budget to mid-market
purchasing power 38
Market profile
Eight pillars of the environment this decision sits in (0–100).
Sector fit — this market
Which sectors this market supports best. Your pick is highlighted.
01
Why — the drivers
what supports or constrains this sector hereTourism
Tourism supports demand in this market.
short-term▲ positive78
Safety
Safety is adequate but not a standout advantage.
short-term◆ mixed55
Opportunity
Opportunity is adequate but not a standout advantage.
medium-term◆ mixed57
Big Mac · live affordability
The everyday-cost proxy — real prices, The Economist 2026-01-01.
0
AFFORDABILITY /100
Local price
255 TRY
USD price
$5.90
Macs / salary
119
Work minutes
89
Currency valuation
-4% undervalued
Forecast — 3 scenarios
Market outlook band; probability-weighted.
Conservative
31
p = 31%
Base
48
p = 40%
Growth
65
p = 29%
02
Should you here — or elsewhere?
same sector, ranked across markets03
The call
Why yes
- Tourism (78) supports demand for tourism.
Why not
- Elevated inflation (58.51%) pressures pricing and margins.
- High unemployment (8.8%) softens local demand.
- Thin local purchasing power (38) — lean on tourists/expats or price low.
- Limited data confidence (62) — verify before committing capital.
Recommended strategy
CAUTION. Phase entry and hedge currency & input costs — target a budget to mid-market tourism offer. Decision score 55/100 (fit 63, opportunity 57, risk 71).
Monitor: inflation vs. wage growth · Big Mac releases & currency valuation · tourism trend · competitive supply.